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The “Gold vs. BTC” Debate is Pure Fluff
Piepenburg rolls up his sleeves with a blunt assessment of BTC’s so-called “digital gold” slogan, which, based on the very definitional elements of money and the mathematical elements of volatility, clearly makes BTC neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. Piepenburg makes no direct criticism of BTC as the speculative asset of an era, but the crypto in no real way resembles the characteristics and uses of physical gold nor an anti-fiat money alternative.
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THE EVIL CYCLES OF WAR AND ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION
As we approach what usually should be a blissful holiday period, the treacherous path the world is now on does not bode well for 2025 and beyond.
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Die 6-Millionen-Dollar-Banane
In New York wird eine Banane für über 6 Millionen Dollar versteigert, der Dow Jones Index läuft auf 45.000 Punkte zu und Bitcoin auf 100.000 Dollar. Sind wir in der Endphase einer nie dagewesenen Spekulationsblase? Dafür spricht einiges, auch die immer stärkere Abkoppelung der Finanzmärkte von der Realität. Der Buffett-Indikator erreicht 200% des BIP, während der Andrang bei "Tafeln" ständig größer wird und immer mehr US-Bürger in teure Kreditkartenverschuldung gezwungen werden. Die Hoffnungen in Trump, die auch BTC und Aktien beflügelten, dürften sich als Luftschlösser erweisen. Gold wird weiterhin von östlichen Zentralbanken gekauft, während im Westen keine Veränderung des Anlegerverhaltens zu sehen ist. Gold ist, trotz nominalen Höchstpreisen, in den Depots weiterhin sehr niedrig gewichtig und bietet große Chancen im unvermeidlichen Finanz-Tsunami.
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GOLD WILL RISE BY MULTIPLES
The combination of Eastern/Southern Central Bank gold buying and all CBS replacing their dollar reserves with gold will lead to unprecedented demand for gold for many years. More gold cannot satisfy this demand since the current gold mine production of around 3,000 tonnes cannot be increased. Thus, the substantial increase in physical gold demand can only be satisfied by much, much higher prices. This is why gold will rise by multiples.
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Gold In a Trump Era: Rock Still Beats Paper
Needless to say, Donald Trump recently won the US election, and as JFK Jr. said of this “impolitic” figure, a “revolution” is coming. Depending on one’s politics, such a “revolution” is either music to one’s ears or the potential for “fascism American style.” Good grief… Nothing written here or elsewhere will change the polarized opinions of those who have long ago picked their right or left camp (or pejorative), so there will be neither gloating nor hand-wringing here.
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GOLD - BEST ASSET IN 2000s BUT YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET!
There is a fine line between happiness and misery, as Dickens describes in David Copperfield. Copperfield’s landlord, Mr Micawber, was just on the wrong side of happiness by six pence. In a recent article called THE END OF THE US ECONOMIC AND MILITARY EMPIRE AND THE RISE OF GOLD, I stated: “Unsustainable deficits and galloping […]
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Who & What Are Killing the USA?
There Are Two Americas… This observation goes beyond the partisan divide of a polarized nation heading toward a polarized election. The deeper, irrevocable rift lies beyond left vs. right. Quite simply, the rising divide of this late-stage empire is marked by haves and have-nots. A clear minority has reaped visible benefits while an ever-expanding majority live paycheck to paycheck amidst job-loss anxiety, record-level credit card/car loan delinquencies and the invisible (grossly misreported) tax of inflation. Oh, and we have over 13M new “asylum seekers” (future bribed voters?) who cost about $68K each to support…
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5 Reasons Why The Gold Rally Is Not Over Yet
Has the gold price reached its peak, or is it in a bubble similar to the early 1980s? Is a significant correction on the horizon, or are there strong reasons to believe that gold is not yet extremely overvalued? Find out more.
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THE END OF THE US ECONOMIC AND MILITARY EMPIRE & THE RISE OF GOLD
Yet our army is shrinking while the navy is decommissioning warships faster than new ones can be built, our Air Force has stagnated in size, and only a fraction of the force is available for combat on any given day. After decades of neglect, the defence industrial base cannot produce major weapon systems in the numbers we need in a timely way, nor - as we have seen in Ukraine - can it produce the vast quantity of munitions required for a great power conflict. Despite these realities, it is largely business as usual in Washington. Dramatic change is needed to convert rhetoric into ensuring and sustaining long-term "military superiority”.
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Power Shifts, Gold’s Resurgence and the Signals Family Offices Should Heed
In an insightful interview, Jonny Haycock, Partner at VON GREYERZ, explores critical topics shaping the global financial landscape and the signals family offices must not ignore.
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A Global Snapshot: The Stupid, the Broken & the Evil
As a polarized U.S. marches toward a political, financial, and perhaps even military crossroads in the closing months 2024, many feel what George Lukas might otherwise describe as a “disturbance in the force.” From blow-off market tops, empty political platitudes and an openly broken bond market to debased currencies and large swaths of the planet at war or inching toward escalation, it seems we are juggling aspects of the stupid, the broken, the insane and perhaps even…the evil.
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How to Hedge Anti-Heroes?
Left, right or center, our policy makers - from parliaments and executive branches to central banks and think tanks - have taken the world closer to war, immigration disasters, infrastructure failures, credit traps, wealth inequality, social unrest and currency destruction than any other time in recent memory.
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$ 1 MILLION GOLD PRICE & EXCHANGE CONTROLS
It was always inevitable that the GOLD price would reach $ 1 million! So, now we are there. The price for a 400-ounce gold bar has now reached $ 1 million. It reached $ 1 million on August 16, 2024 – 53 years and 1 day after the US (Nixon) permanently said farewell to the […]
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Golden Question: Is Democracy Dying?
Is democracy dying? Pride Cometh Before the Fall Many years ago, the American political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, prematurely declared the victory both of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism. In a recent article, I argued that Fukuyama was dead wrong. Sadly, I’ve also written that capitalism died long ago, replaced instead by a fact-supported yet disturbing […]
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THIS WILL NOT LAST - DESPERATION
The last few weeks are pointing to clear directional markets in the coming weeks, months and probably years. – Stocks have peaked – Gold and Silver have resumed a secular uptrend. (price targets later in the article) – US 10-year Treasury yields are heading much higher. (even if there is a temporary Fed cut) – […]
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Nowhere to Run - Gold & Family
In this important 20-minute Gold Matters discussion, Matt Piepenburg and Egon von Greyerz cover critical areas which are vital for investors to survive in a tumultuous world. These include: – What triggered the stock market falls this week – Why investors must not buy the dips in stocks – The dangers facing the world due […]
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From Biden to Bonds: Unmasking a Template of Lies
Political opinions are almost as vast as financial opinions—from bull to bear, or left to right. But there are differences, no? Political opinions, unlike market evaluations, for example, more often lean on emotion, media/partisan influence or even Californian hair styles rather than simple math. But in the spectrum of negative to euphoric market pundits, even […]
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The New Abnormal: Social Unrest, Market Volatility & Currency Debasement
In his latest conversation with the David Lin, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, addresses US political volatility (post-assassination attempt, pre-Biden drop out) and social unrest, with special attention on their near and longer-term implications for US and global markets. Turning to US political headlines, Piepenburg addresses the history of markets under Democratic and Republican administrations […]
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AVOID THE COMING DEBACLE WITH YOUR PERSONAL GOLD BANK
The failure of Western financial structures, including the currency system, is in its final stages. Sadly, no one takes any notice – YET! Global debt has already tripled this century, with the dollar and most currencies having lost 98.5% of their purchasing power since 1971. Experts say the US can never default as they have […]
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Is the USD Really Too Big to Fail?
Between politics (driven by self rather than public servants), markets (driven by debt rather than profits) and currencies (diluted by over-creation rather than chaperoned by a real asset), it is fair to say we live in not interesting but surreal times. But amidst the surreal, the dollar, as many believe, is our rock, our immortal […]
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5 Reasons for a New Gold Playbook
The rise in the gold price this spring 2024 was undoubtedly spectacular. In just a few weeks, the gold price rose by almost 20% in USD terms, with a gain of 21.7% for the first half of the year as a whole. In EUR terms, gold recorded a gain of 16.4% in the first six months of the year.
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AS POLITICAL PARTIES FALL, GOLD AND SILVER WILL RISE
With the collapse of the Western financial and political systems now happening before our eyes, wealth preservation takes on a totally different meaning.
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Gold vs. “Bad Cocktails” of Staggering Credit, Equity and Currency Risk
In this extensive interview with Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, addresses a wide range of market forces impacting investors in an almost surreal 2024 of rate tensions, credit vulnerabilities, currency (USD) shifts and geopolitical unknowns. The interview includes a “post-script” analysis of Piepenburg’s observations by two independent portfolio managers worthy of careful attention.
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The Next Generation Deserves an Apology
I spend a lot of time tracking the ripple effects of embarrassing and unsustainable debt levels on our credit markets, rate markets, equity bubbles, inflation metrics and, of course, the daily-debasement of our currency’s inherent purchasing power.
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AS DOMINOES FALL, GOLD WILL STAND STRONGER THAN EVER
At the end of a monetary era a number of dominoes will keep falling, initially gradually and then suddenly as Hemingway explained when asked how you go bankrupt. Some of the important dominoes the world will see falling are: Political, Geopolitical, Currency, Debt and Investment Assets. The consequences will be unthinkable – Social Unrest, War, […]
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Jim Rogers & Egon von Greyerz: Navigating Economic Uncertainty
Financial experts Egon von Greyerz and Jim Rogers explore the complexities of global economics, investment strategies, and the future of currencies.
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Is America Losing?
Below, we soberly assess the lessons of history and math against the current realities of a debt-defined America to ask and answer a painful yet critical question: Is America losing?
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Piepenburg Discusses Gold, Currency, and Economic Trends
In this detailed interview with Silver Bullion Television, Matthew Piepenburg, partner at Von Greyerz, joins host Patrick Vierra in Singapore to discuss the pressing issues facing the global economy.
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Sober Gold vs. The Rate Cut Circus Show
Poor America. Poor Jerome Powell… It is no fun to be openly trapped, and even less fun to be in open decline while meekly declaring all is fine.
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THE REAL MOVE IN GOLD & SILVER IS YET TO START
Since the October 2023 gold low of just over $1,600 gold is up but is anyone buying?
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The Tragic Ripple Effects of Historically Unsustainable Debt
VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, joins John Buttler (Southbank Research) and David Lin in a spirited discussion on the omni-present yet undeniably important theme of the USD and its historical implications for rising gold.
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Why Is Gold Rising Now, Where Is It Headed Tomorrow?
Needless to say, we at VON GREYERZ spend a good deal of time thinking about, well… gold. Year after year, and week after week, there is always a new way to examine gold price moves and decipher the obvious and not-so obvious forces which flow behind, ahead, above and below its monetary and, yes, metallic, move through time. Here I explain why gold is rising now.
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Gold’s Historical Rise Amidst Wall Street Socialism, Main Street Feudalism & a Dying Dollar
In this full-ranging discussion with Anthony Fatseas of WT Finance, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, squarely addresses the financial, market, currency and central bank forces which evidence an embarrassing disconnect between markets at blow-off tops and a Main Street economy openly blowing away…In this backdrop, the direction and role of gold is now undeniably significant.
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GOLD AND SILVER ENTERING EXPONENTIAL PHASE
The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit.
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The biggest misconception with regard to gold – High stock-to-flow ratio is the most important characteristic of gold
In recent weeks, gold has reached new all-time highs in many currencies, including the US dollar, the euro and the Swiss franc. We want to take the euphoric mood among gold investors as an opportunity to focus on a fundamental topic. From our point of view, the gold sector is riddled with an elementary misunderstanding.
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Piepenburg: The Soft Landing Farce as Stocks Rip
In this brief, 13-minute compilation of insights from 2023, VON GREYERZ, AG partner, Matthew Piepenburg, reminds us of prior warnings which are truer than ever (and playing out) today as the stock market totally divorces itself from the real (and recessionary) economy.
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Smart Gold Ownership: Why Gold ETFs Aren’t the Best Option
The best way to own precious metals is outside of the banking system. Because ETF vehicles used for precious metal ownership are integrally tied to this system, they too are another all-too-common, yet clearly inferior approach, to informed precious metal ownership. For many investors, gold and other metal ETFs are the most convenient instruments for […]
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The Implications of Fatal Debt? Expect More Lies
If you want to understand the direction of debt, rates, the USD, inflation, risk asset markets, gold and the US endgame, it might be better not to listen to the experts. In fact, Johny Cash is a far better source…
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UNSTOPPABLE DRIVERS WILL REVEAL BEST KEPT INVESTMENT SECRET
The world’s best kept investment secret is GOLD Gold has gone up 7.5X this century Gold Compound annual return since 2000 is 9.2% Dow Jones Compound annual return since 2000 is 7.7% incl. reinvested dividends So why are only 0.6% of global financial assets in gold?
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Piepenburg Talks Gold: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow
In this unique compilation of interviews made throughout 2023, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, squarely addresses the key themes and questions regarding physical gold ownership. Not surprisingly, so many of the trends (inflation, rates, Fed policy and gold pricing) which Piepenburg tracked throughout 2023 are clearly playing out/confirmed in real time as we move into 2024.
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The Facts and Math Are Clear: Gold’s Rise is Only Beginning
In this fact-packed, 30-minute conversation, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, joins Jesse Day of Commodity Culture to make sense of the growing list of dislocations in debt, currency and financial markets, all of which serve as longer-term tailwinds for gold.
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Modern “Leadership”: A Perfect Blend of Delusion, Dishonesty & Distraction
As is historically typical of all corrupted and objectively bankrupt nations, the truth is often as hard to find as an honest man in parliament.
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GOLD - WE HAVE LIFTOFF!
All Empires die without fail, so do all Fiat currencies. But Gold has been shining for 5000 years and as I explain in this article, Gold is likely to outshine virtually all assets in the next 5-10 years.
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What’s Next When Policy Makers Can’t Hide Their Sins?
It’s almost comical to watch policy makers of all stripes and country codes caught in a corner yet pretending we don’t notice. Again: It’s almost comical. But there’s really nothing funny at all about major economies crawling into recession (Germany, Japan, UK, China) or denying recession (USA) while our mental midgets from DC to the EU play with bonds, inflation currency and war like kindergarteners with gas and matches.
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The Worst Time for Yet Another Grotesque Stock Bubble…
In this critically important Gold Matters discussion, VON GREYERZ principals, Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg, place the enormous risks of the current U.S. equity bubble within the much-needed context of unprecedented global economic factors.
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WAR + INFLATION = GOLD
All the fundamentals are now in place for the above equation to be true.
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Piepenburg, Williams, Schechtman and Martin Agree: The World Is Dramatically Shifting, Gold is Essential
Matthew Piepenburg joins Grant Williams, Andy Schectman and Jay Martin in the opening presentation at the recent Vancouver Resource Investment Conference to discuss the truly “tectonic shifts” in the global political and financial playing field.
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Gold: How DC Screwed You, and Now Itself
The French poet, Arthur Rimbaud famously wrote that “Nothing is true.” Hmmm. Fairly sensational, no? Deciphering the nuance behind such poetic phrases is almost as difficult as deciphering the meaning behind so many political (and hence central banking) phrases.
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The US Is Living on Borrowed Time
In late December, I published a final report on the themes of 2023 while looking ahead at their implications for the year to come. I repeated my claim that debt markets and debt levels made the future of Fed policies, currency moves, rate markets and gold’s endgame fairly clear to see. Of course, as facts change, opinions change as well.
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CATCH THE GOLDWAGON OR LOSE YOUR FORTUNE
With the US shooting itself in the foot again, we are now certain that this is the final farewell to the bankrupt dollar based monetary system. More about this follows but in the meantime an extremely important warning:
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2024 – A Year in which Social Tensions Will Deepen further: Anecdotal Evidence of Three Worldviews
In Europe, many countries have been seething since 2015, when the first major wave of refugees reached Germany and Austria in particular. In the US, it was the election of Donald Trump as President in November 2016 that brought the deep divide between Republicans and Democrats to everyone's attention. A few months earlier, to the surprise of many, the UK had opted for Brexit, an exit from the EU. Only a few years have passed since then, but the density of crises has increased rather than decreased: Covid-19, the climate crisis, inflation, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and finally Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel and its response.
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More Golden (and Black-Gold) Proof: The Dollar is Totally Screwed
Ever since day-one of the predictably disastrous and politically myopic insanity of weaponizing the world reserve currency against a major power like Russia, we warned that the USD had reached an historical turning pointof slow demise and increasing de-dollarization. We also warned that this would be a gradual process rather than over-night headline, much like the slow but steady death of the USD’s purchasing power since Nixon left the gold standard in 1971...
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2024 Markets: The End of a Crappy Year, The Beginning of a Worse One
As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold. This will not be short, but hopefully simple.
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Hope Dies, Gold Rises
The primary stages of grief include: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally, acceptance. When it comes to grieving over the slow demise of the American economy, sovereign IOU/USD and the absolute failure of our “re-election-only-focused” policy makers, these stages of grief are easy to see yet easier to ignore.
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THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE END
The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecast in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window. Again, remember von Mises words: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.”
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DC Cancelled Common Sense
It doesn’t require decades of financial expertise to balk at the notion of selling retail air conditioning units in Siberia or lemonade stands in the heart of the Arctic. That is, even a high-school freshman would foresee the likely mis-match in supply and demand. After all, unwanted assets, including USTs, can often have more supply than demand. In other words: Common sense matters.
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It’s Time (and Easy) to be Smarter than Our “Leaders”
Below, we consider just how far America has fallen from its founding vision (and something we can do about it).
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Debt, Currency Debasement & War—The Timeless Pillars of Failure
Below, we follow the breadcrumbs of simple math and bond market signals toward an oft-repeated pattern of how once-great nations become, well…not so great any more.
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A 1987 CRASH IN STOCKS WITH A GOLDEN DAWN FOR OIL AND GOLD
What a bloody mess! Well, economic collapses and wars always are. But sadly it will become a lot messier! We now have two dangerous wars, maybe we will have a global war. We have a coming collapse of stock markets and debt markets and a banking system which probably will not survive in its present form. But there is always another side of the coin.
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5 Signs that Gold Will increasingly Flow to the East
The reshaping of the world economy and the global (political) order is in full swing. It is a long process, the concrete outcome of which is uncertain in advance and associated with numerous imponderables. Nevertheless, there are powerful factors, such as the shift in economic, demographic and military weight, that are driving the readjustment in the (geo)political arena. And this readjustment is also reflected in the change in gold flows. They are increasingly shifting from West to East, since “Gold goes where the money is,” as James Steel pointedly put it.
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The Economic Future is Sad, Simple & Already Obvious
The foregoing title may seem a bit sensational, no? With all the recent hype about a gold-backed BRICS currency emerging from this summer’s South African meet-and-greet vanishing like oar swirls, one can understand the argument that many gold bugs chase (and create) click-bait like teenage bloggers. And the precious metals space is no stranger to being labeled perma “doom-and-gloomers” to keep the retail trade forever moving. Fine. Understood. Yep. I get it. We are all “just selling our book.”
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A SICK US PATIENT WITH A $100 TRILLION DEBT
The health of the world economy is clearly linked to the health of global leaders. That clearly raises the question if unhealthy leaders create a diseased economy or if an ailing economy creates sick leaders. It doesn’t really matter what came first since the Western world economy is now as close to being terminally ill as it has ever been and its population is continuously getting unhealthier. And weak Western leaders focus on peripheral political issues, whether it is climate, ESG, Covid vaccines, gender and other woke topics.
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Real BRICS Threat + The Worst Macros I’ve Ever Seen
In many recent articles and interviews, I’ve warned that Powell’s “higher for longer” war against inflation will actually (and ironically) lead to, well… greater inflation. That is, the rising interest expense (nod to Powell) on Uncle Sam’s fatally rising 33T bar tab will inevitably need to be paid with an inflationary mouse-clicker at the Eccles Building. I’ve also consistently maintained that Powell’s war on inflation is mostly just optics, as he secretly seeks inflation to help pay down that bar tab with an increasingly inflated/debased USD. Powell achieves this open lie by publicly declaring a steady decline in inflation by simply misreporting the true CPI number.
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Rising GDP + Rising Yields = A MAJOR Sign of “Uh-Oh”
Have you heard the good news? The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates a 5.9% growth in real GDP for Q3 2023. In nominal terms, we can even boast of an 8.9% surge. What fantastic news! Growth! Productivity! This must mean we can all breath a collective sigh of relief as Powell continues his valiant war against inflation as GDP rises, right?
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When Baseballs & Guitars Say More Than Pundits
Before I got the invite to a swank prep-school out East, I used to spend my Spring afternoons on a baseball diamond not too far from the home field of Derek Jeter, who was still playing local ball in Kalamazoo while I was harboring high-school fantasies of playing for the Detroit Tigers. Glory Days, Simple Lessons. Those were dreamy days of young fantasy. Alas, the Tigers never called, so I hit the books rather than the minor leagues and never looked back.
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POWELL’S ABRACADABRA INFLATION TARGETING
The Fed has two mandates - Maximum Employment and Price Stability If we look at price stability, the Fed has failed miserably. The Fed employs 3,000 people in Washington DC of which 300 have a Ph.D. degree. Their mission is “to provide our nation with a safer and more flexible and more stable monetary and financial system” with the overall mandate being price stability. In addition to discussing the Fed’s total failure in controlling inflation, in this article I will also stick my neck out in the climate debate before I go on to the likely disastrous effects of debts, deficits and inflation will have on investment markets.
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Keeping Your Head Amidst Debt-Blind Madness
I recently blew the dust off an old Rudyard Kipling poem, “If,” which many have castigated as a bit overly romantic, despite its high praise from Mark Twain and T.S. Eliot to India’s Khushwant Singh. The fact, moreover, that “If” was written by a Victorian era colonial in 1895 as a father’s advice to a son, could easily put its otherwise timeless insights at risk of being cancelled by the woke elite as potentially misogynistic or regionally insensitive… Notwithstanding such critiques, financial readers might equally be asking what Kipling has to do with global markets, the currency wars, inflation/deflation tensions or the US bond market? Given the fact that each of these financial topics, when examined closely or even broadly, are now signs of open madness, yet still consistently ignored or down-played by our leaders and media midgets, I could not help but consider the following line of advice...
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The BRICS Won’t Kill the Dollar, US Policy Will
Below we separate the hype from the sad reality of the USD in the face of a new “BRICS currency.” Net conclusion: The real death of the USD will be domestic not foreign.
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A CATASTROPHIC DEBT IMPLOSION CAN BE INCREDIBLY QUICK
Will the world experience a catastrophic debt implosion? Just like the Titanic Submersible that recently imploded, the global debt bubble can implode “within just a fraction of a millisecond”. More later in the article. Are we now in the third circle in Dante’s Inferno?
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Jerome Powell: Misunderstood Angel or Open Devil?
Becoming Powell’s (and the Devil’s) Advocate? I’ve been thinking, and re-thinking, Powell. It’s no secret that in numerous interviews and articles, Jerome Powell has been on my critical mind. I called him a breathing weapon of mass destruction, and have openly mocked his attempt to be Volcker 2.0 in a USA facing $32T in public debt and climbing. So, what gives? Why and what am I re-thinking?
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Recession ante Portas: Which Assets Perform Well in Recessions?
It is considered the most anticipated recession of all time – the one looming in the US. And although countless indicators ranging from the yield curve, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) and PMIs to producer prices and international trade volumes have been pointing to a recession for months, it has not yet materialized in the USA. However, the labor market, which has been more than robust up to now, is now showing the first signs of a slowdown. A labor market which, due to demographic change, is structured completely differently than it was in the 1970s. Initial jobless claims have been on an upward trend since last fall.
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MAJOR REVALUATION OF GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS IS IMMINENT
The time has now come for the 99.5% of financial assets which are not invested in gold silver or precious metals mining stocks to grab both the investment and wealth preservation opportunity of a life time. Making that decision before it is too late is likely to determine your financial and also general wellbeing for the rest of your life!
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Modern Currency Policy: Nations Compete, Citizens Suffer
Below we consider how modern currency policy may not be so good for, well, the people... This is why gold inevitably enters the conversation, for unlike policy makers, this old pet rock garners more trust.
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Solid Gold In a Broken World
Below, we look at gold in a broke(n) world of hubris, debt, Realpolitik and a rising east. For well over a year, we’ve openly declared that the Fed is cornered. That is, Powell knows he needs higher rates to allegedly “fight” inflation but also knows that raising rates into an historical debt bubble means one “credit event” (or “crunch”) after the next, from tanking USTs in 2020 to tanking banks in 2023. It seems only now that the WSJ (Mr. Timiraos), along with a former Indian central banker (Mr. Rajan) is confessing the same.
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Stories for Children: The US Economic Fairytale
When Humpty Dumpty fell off the wall and took a big fall, “all the king’s horses and all the king’s men could not put Humpty-Dumpty together again.” I see a similar fate for the US debt egg, whose cracks are just about, well… everywhere. The first obvious (but media ignored) signs of this breaking egg emerged in September of 2019, when the TBTF banks no longer trusted each other’s collateral and the repo markets spiked overnight, prompting Uncle Fed to be the lender of last resort to its spoiled little banking nephews. This required hundreds and hundreds of billions in mouse-clicked liquidity. But then again, what does a billion or trillion even mean anymore to a mouse-clicker and $31+T (and growing) Public debt?
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Front-Running the Fed: How Gold & Chess-Players Beat a Rigged Market
We have hardly been the first nor the last to realize that rising rates “break things.” We’ve all seen the disastrous credit events in the repo crisis of late 2019, the UST debacle in March of 2020, the gilt implosion of October 2022 and, of course, the banking crisis of March, 2023. And behind, beneath, above and below each of these debacles lies a bemused central banker.
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Facts vs. Fed-Speak: A Comical History with Tragic Consequences
Below, we look at simple facts in the context of complex markets to underscore the dangerous direction of Fed-Speak and Fed policy. Keep It Simple, Stupid. The simple facts are clear to almost anyone who wishes to see them.
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Dollar Woes to Debt Denial: The USA Is Screwed
Below, we see why the USA is screwed. De-Dollarization: Downplaying the Obvious De-Dollarization is a real, all too real trend, though it is both fascinating and disturbing to see what is otherwise so obvious being deliberately down-played, excused or ignored from the top down. But then again, the laundry list of ignored facts and open lies from the top down to hide hard truths in everything from inflation data to recessionary debt traps is nothing new. Instead, such propaganda replacing blunt transparency is the new normal (and classic trick) for all historical endings to debt-soaked (and failing) nations/systems and their fork-tongued (i.e., guilty) policy makers.
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A DISORDERLY RESET WITH GOLD REVALUED BY MULTIPLES
Tectonic shifts lie ahead. These will involve a US and European debt crisis ending in a debt collapse, a precipitous fall of the dollar and the Euro with Gold emerging as a reserve asset but at multiples of the current price. The next phase of the fall of the West is here and will soon accelerate. It has been both precipitated and aggravated by the absurd sanctions of Russia. These sanctions are hurting Europe badly and affecting the US in a way that they didn’t expect but was obvious to some of us. The Romans understood that free trade was essential between all the countries that they conquered. But the US administration blocks both the money and the ability to trade of the countries they don’t like.
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Gold, Oil & Global Currencies Entering a Watershed Moment
Below we look at the math, history and current oil environment in the backdrop of a global debt crisis to better predict currency and gold market direction without the need of tarot cards.
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FORECASTING THE GOLD PRICE IS A MUG’S GAME
Most investors are totally ignorant of the purpose of gold or its historical significance. After all, Gold is the only money that has survived in history but virtually nobody is aware of this vital information. That’s why only 0.5% of global financial assets are invested in gold. Still most people put their trust in paper money. In spite of the title, in this article I will be a Mug for a day and make some gold and silver projections.
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So Many Open Signs of Financial Disaster Ahead and Gold Working
From oil markets to treasury stacking, backdoor QE, investor fantasy and hedge fund prepping, it’s becoming more and more clear that the big boys are bracing for disaster as gold stretches its legs for a rapid run north. Recently, I dove into the cracks in the petrodollar as yet another symptom of a world turning its back on USTs and USDs. Gold, of course, has a role in these headlines if one looks deep enough. So, let’s look deeper. Diving Deeper into the Oil Story The headlines of late, for example, are all about “surprise” OPEC production cuts. Why is this happening and what does it say about gold down the road? First, let’s face the politics. As noted many times, it seems US policy, on everything from short-sighted (suicidal?) sanctions to the “green initiative” makes just about zero sense in the real world, which is miles apart from the “keep-me-elected” fantasy-world of DC. After all, energy, matters, which means oil matters. But the current regime in DC has been losing friends in Saudi Arabia and cutting its prior and once admirable shale production outputs (think 2016-2020) in the US despite a world that still runs on black gold fighting against green politics. The DC attack on shale may make the Greta Thunbergs happy, but let’s be blunt: It defies economic common sense. Saudi, by cutting production, is now showing a still very much oil-dependent world it is not afraid of losing market share to the USA in the face of rising oil for the simple reason that the USA just aint got enough oil to fill the gap or flex its energy muscles. In the meantime, Chinese demand for crude is peaking while Russian oil flows to the east (including to Japan) are hitting new highs at prices above the US-led price cap of $60/barrel. If DC has any blunt realists (wrongly castigated as tree-killers) left, it will have to re-think its anti-oil policies and get back toward that recent era when US shale was responsible for 90% of total global oil supply growth. If not, oil prices can and will spike, making Powell’s war on inflation even more of an open charade. Speaking of inflation…
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FIRST GRADUALLY THEN SUDDENLY - THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE
The inevitable consequence of the current Global Debt Bubble will be the Bankruptcy of the financial system and many of its participants. The one Swiss and three US banks that just went under is just a foretaste of what is to come. As the US and European banking systems come under pressure, The Everything Collapse will cause a collapse in financial markets of a magnitude that has never before been seen in history. Since the global financial system is a mesh which reaches every financial player in the world, from sovereigns to private individuals, no-one will be able to escape the The Everything Collapse.
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Showdown on the Markets – in 5 Charts
There is a good reason why the Chinese understand the saying “May you live in exciting times!” as a curse. Economic and (geo)political developments in recent weeks and months have indeed been exciting. In many areas, it looks as if we are heading for a showdown, for a lasting, formative change. The following five charts present the multi-faceted showdowns that are happening right now before our eyes. We cannot choose that the times are currently so exciting. However, we can choose how to deal with these exciting times so that they do not become a curse for us, but rather an advantage for us and as many people as possible.
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“Lions Led by Donkeys:” The Irrevocable Decline in US Hegemony
In his latest conversation with WTFinance’s Anthony Fatseas, Matterhorn Asset Management principal Matthew Piepenburg answers the question: Is the worst behind us? The short answer is: No. The reasons, and signals, however, are many, which Piepenburg addresses from both a broad and market-specific perspective. Piepenburg’s analysis begins and ends with a string cite of bond-market-driven signals and crises—from the repo disaster of 2019 to the latest US bank failures of 2023. Piepenburg distinguishes the bank failures of 2008 and 2023, but reminds that the Fed has its fingerprints on every crisis and every artificial “recovery.” The simple math of debt, inflation and monetary policy failures (akin to “credit cards and whiskey”) confirm that cornered central banks have no good options or scenarios left. It’s either tighten into economic depression (hangover) or loosen policy into a hyper-inflationary pain (hangover). The latter is most likely.
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“No Way Out” for Global Markets Trapped in a Doom Loop of Debt
In this compelling conversation with Wealthion founder, Adam Taggart, Matterhorn Asset Management principal, Matthew Piepenburg, addresses the current and vast range of headline market topics, signals and risks. Inflation, deflation, risk assets, bond stress, cryptos, war, bank failures, CBDC’s rise, trapped policy makers and, of course, the topic of precious metals are all carefully and plainly discussed. Piepenburg’s broader views on current and future financial conditions are bluntly yet realistically presented as a “no way out” scenario for global economies distorted by cornered central bankers. The bottom line is as simple as it is incontrovertible: The global economy is stuck in a doom loop of debt.
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Golden Question? Is the Petrodollar the Next Thing to Break?
As we warned throughout 2022, the Fed’s overly rapid and overly steep rate hikes would only “work” until things began breaking, and, well…things have clearly begun to break, including the petrodollar. Even prior to the recent headlines regarding US regional banks, “credit event” stressors were already tipping like dominoes around the world, from the 2019 repo crisis and the 2020 bond spiral to the 2022 gilt implosion. Then came SVB et al in 2023, and, of course, the forewarned disaster at Credit Suisse… But as we also warned literally from day 1 of the sanctions against Putin, the oh-so-critical petrodollar would be among the next dominoes to tip, and tipping is precisely what we see. As argued below, petrodollar shifts are yet another headwind for USTs and USDs, but an obvious tailwind for gold. But before we dig into this historical tipping point, it’s important to see the forensic cause of all that is breaking…
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Today & Tomorrow: Volatility Worse Than 1987, September 11th and the 2008 Crisis
In this 30-minute conversation with Elijah Johnson of Liberty Finance, Matthew Piepenburg addresses the escalating ripple effects of the U.S. banking crisis and the growing distrust of gasping bond markets, cornered policy makers and now inevitable as well as potentially unprecedented market instability. Already, Treasury markets and contract prices in the futures market are sending price and volatility signals which surpass the stressors of 1987, 9-11 and the GFC of 2008.
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THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE
“Don’t wish for gold to go up substantially for when it does, your quality of life will deteriorate remarkably.” Let me be clear, now is the time to protect whatever assets you have in order to avoid the total asset destruction that is coming next. THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE.
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Bond Destruction, Banking Waste and the Tilt Toward CBDC
In this extensive and now English-translated, interview with Jan Kneist of Investor Talk, Matterhorn Asset Management principal, Matthew Piepenburg, addresses the critical themes of the ongoing banking crisis. In this substantive, 21-minute conversation, Piepenburg squarely addresses the ripple effects and larger implications of the current banking crisis, namely: 1) its bond crisis origins; 2) the ultimate pretext for (and direction toward) political and financial centralization culminating in CBDC; 3) increasing consolidation away from the smaller banks toward larger banks; 4) the nearly inconceivable waste behind the Credit Suisse bailout; 5) the percolating and equally inconceivable dangers within the derivative markets; 6) the collapse of trust in the USD as evidenced by the rise of the BRICS; and, of course, 7) the growing importance and role of gold in a world heading inevitably toward more centralized controls and currencies. As Piepenburg has warned and repeated throughout 2022 and 2023, all debt-soaked systems inevitably resort to desperate measures and greater controls, of which currency debasement and increased centralization, symbolized by the drift toward CBDC, is no surprise or exaggeration.
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Je T’Accuse: To Bond Killers & Other Villains Destroying Our World
From bond markets to border wars, the world is openly and objectively tilting toward disaster. Many of us already know this, but what can be done? As I look back on just the latest and entirely predictable hours, days and weeks of waste occurring in the global debt markets in general, and the U.S. Treasury markets and banking systems in particular, the billions and trillions sloshing and churning through emergency swap lines, discount windows and broken financial systems almost defies belief.
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THIS IS IT! - THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS TERMINALLY BROKEN
Anyone who doesn’t see what it happening will soon lose a major part of their assets either through bank failure, currency debasement or the collapse of all bubble assets like stocks, property and bonds by 75-100%. Many bonds will become worthless. Wealth preservation in physical gold is now absolutely critical. Obviously it must be stored outside a broken financial system. More later in this article.
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Silicon Valley Bank Collapse: Just how safe is the banking system? Matthew Piepenburg shares his views.
On Wednesday 8th March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) announced a loss $1.8B from sale of investment securities. Investors and Depositors got spooked, withdrawing estimated $42B+ in cash within a few hours; approx 25% of total SVB deposits, leaving a negative cash balance of $1B. Matthew Piepenburg, joins Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, to discuss the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank.
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Making Common, Golden Sense of the Next Senseless Bank Crisis
Two Failed Banks. The tech-friendly SVB story (i.e. FDIC shutdown) is actually preceded by another failed bank, namely the crypto-friendly Silvergate Capital. Corp, now heading into voluntary liquidation. It boils down to crypto fears, tech stress and bad banking practices.
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California Dreaming – Staatsmetapher für eine Scheiternde Nation
Im Folgenden betrachten wir den US-Bundesstaat Kalifornien als Metapher für einen gescheiterten Staat aber auch als Metapher für das Scheitern des amerikanischen Staatenverbunds.
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California Dreaming—State Metaphor for a Failing Nation
We consider the State of California as the metaphor of a failed state as well as the failing state of the American Union, which is anything but a dream.
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Powell’s Gettysburg Moment, the USD’s Waterloo & Today’s Open Madness
Regardless of what Powell says today, the real play is 3 to 4 moves ahead, which all point toward an inevitably weaker USD and thus an inevitably rising gold price. Powell, of course, is more politician than economist, and central banks like the Fed are anything but independent. As such, Powell, DC and the creative math and fiction writers at the BLS will continue to do what all politicians (or losing armies) do when things are going against them: Lie.
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No Matter How You Turn It, The Global System is Already Doomed: Got Gold?
With inflation ripping and war blazing, many still argue that gold did not do enough. Hmmm… But gold in every currency but the USD (see above) would beg to differ. Furthermore, and as argued so many ways and times, that USD strength will not hold, as gold’s price moves this year have already tracked. Gold’s future strength and rise is thus easy to foresee, as gold doesn’t rise, currencies just fall. It’s really that simple.
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Bonds Die, CPI’s Lie & Gold Rises
Most investors, sensing a recession, are doing what most investors typically do in bad times: Make bad choices. Key among these bad choices is the traditional flight to long-dated US Treasuries as a “safe haven” as markets and economies head south. I am here to suggest that such a traditional safe haven is now more like a death trap. Why? Well, the answers are found in blunt facts and simple math—two themes our policy makers have long-ago decided to cancel, deny or ignore.
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Open Madness in Global Bond Markets: Got Gold?
The slow but steady implosion of global bond markets is no longer a debate but fact. Knowing this, investors can better brace themselves for the policy and market reactions to come. Here, we once again follow the patterns of math and cycles (as well as the open failure of policy makers) to foresee the direction of risk assets, currencies and gold.
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2023: The ABC’s of CBDC, the Great Reset(s) & MORE Centralized Control
When broken, debt-soaked “developed economies” suffering from years of fantasy money printing to “solve” fatally rising debt levels collide with history-blind and economically-ignorant policy makers, the end result is always the same: Liberty sinks, currencies die and control rises. This is not sensationalism, but the toxic evolution of economic, political and psychological patterns seen throughout time. Sadly, our “times” (as well as the global abundance/convergence of weak leadership) are no exception.
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History Lesson: Trust Gold Rather than Sovereigns
History (whether on battle fields or sports fields) is riddled with tragi-comical examples of human blundering (and hubris) in the face of otherwise obvious and self-inflicted risk—you know: The final swagger just before imminent defeat. Remember “Mission accomplished”? Like well-dressed officers steaming the Titanic at full speed ahead despite repeated ice warnings, the arrogant yet misguided faith our central planners/bankers have in their “unsinkable” financial (i.e., Keynesian) models and verbal platitudes is astonishing.
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Titanic Currency Destruction: How Central Banks Ruined Money
It’s hard to imagine how we ever got to this obvious consequence of too much debt and too much artificial, centralized “capitalism.” Were policy makers sinister (i.e., intentionally creating a red carpet toward CBDC and more total control) or just irretrievably stupid? Either way, the end result is the same: The global financial system will sink, and though the USD may be the last to go under, under she will go.
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Gold’s Climb Amidst Wisdom’s Decline
The media-ignored levels of open fraud and inflationary currency debasement which passes daily for monetary policy (namely monetizing trillions of sovereign debt with trillions of mouse-clicked Dollars) within the FOMC would be comical if not otherwise so tragic in its crippling ripple effect to the Main Street citizen. From Greenspan to Powell, we have witnessed example after example of error after error and gaffe after gaffeon everything from mis-defining inflation narratives as “transitory” to re-defining a “recession” as non-recessionary. And all this while the Fed (and its creative writing team at the BLS) simultaneously and deliberately fudges the math on everything from misreported CPI data to artificial U6 employment statistics.
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Kreditmärkte – Tödlicher Hai aus der Tiefe
Im Weiteren werden wir einen Blick auf Kreditmärkte werfen, die an Glaubwürdigkeit verlieren, während die Zinshaiflossen aufsteigen und ihre Beute einkreisen.
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5 Reasons why the Classic 60/40 Portfolio Is History and Gold Is Becoming More Important in the Portfolio
Gold has largely been able to cushion stock price losses during recessions. For bonds, the classic equity diversifier, on the other hand, things look less good. High levels of debt, the zombification of the economy, and sharp bond price declines as a result of soaring interest rates not only diminish the potential of bonds as an equity corrective, but completely rob bonds of this characteristic. If the relationship between equities and bonds is now actually reversed on a sustained basis, the basis of the 60/40 portfolio – namely a negative correlation between equities and bonds – would be structurally and thus longer-term removed. The fundamental question would then arise as to which asset would take the scepter from Treasuries. Gold, at any rate, would be a hot candidate. And in our opinion, it is high time to ask this question and act accordingly.
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POLO METAPHORS, BOND FAILS AND GOLD'S PRICE DIRECTION
From polo to hockey—it’s a known fact that the best players think three moves ahead. Sadly, the same can’t be said of our financial elites… But as playing conditions deteriorate across the bond, stock, property and currency markets, those with a “three-play- ahead” mindset will have the greatest advantage. This is especially true for precious metal investors, regardless of their riding or skating skills.
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Wie ein illiquider Dollar die Welt ruiniert
Man kann gar nicht genug unterstreichen, wie gefährlich das aktuelle Makroumfeld in Folge des absichtlich stark gemachten und auch illiquiden Dollars geworden ist.
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Une dette de 2 quadrillions $ reposant sur 2 000 milliards $ d'or
Un épisode comparable à celui de Lehman, mais à la puissance 10, se profile à l’horizon, les banques suisses et les fonds de pension britanniques étant soumis à de fortes pressions. Mais intéressons-nous d’abord au cirque itinérant international, qui s’étend désormais à de plus en plus de pays. Comme prévu, il arrive juste à temps […]
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Eine Welt auf dem Weg in die Stagflation
In diesem kurzen Interview mit Steffen Krug von World of Value spricht Matthew Piepenburg, Direktor von Matterhorn Asset Management, über die globale Verschuldung, die Verzweiflung der Zentralbanken und aktuelle Themen, die die Bedingungen in der Schweiz betreffen, von ihren angeschlagenen Banken bis hin zu ihrem endgültigen Status als erstklassiges Land für die Goldlagerung.
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CREDIT MARKETS—THE FATAL SHARK RISING FROM THE DEEP
The yield on the 10Y UST is known by most investors to represent the real cost of capital/borrowing. In short, it is the most important yield in the world, as it prices the cost of the world’s reserve (undeserved) currency. Thus, when the yields rise, the cost of debt rises, and in a world awash in USD-denominated debt, such rising yields are like approaching shark fins to stock and bond markets. Yields, of course, rise when bond prices fall; similarly, yields fall when bond prices rise. Thus, markets like to see strong and natural (or even un-natural QE) bond demand to keep yields low and markets healthy. Recently, there have been signs of rising demand for UST’s, which should be good for the bond markets, right? Well, not so fast…
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PENSIONSFONDS WERDEN IHRE VERPFLICHTUNGEN NICHT EINHALTEN KÖNNEN
Die Stagflation verschärft sich, d.h. bei steigender Inflation sinkt das Wirtschaftswachstum in vielen Ländern. Die Inflation ist zu einem Welt-Problem geworden, ein bisher einmaliger Vorgang. Das aufgebauschte C19-Problem hat seinen Schrecken längst verloren. Mit der hohen Inflation werden die Ökonomien und Bürger weiter ruiniert. Dennoch scheint es so, daß die Zentralbanken vorerst ihre Politik der Zinserhöhungen fortsetzen werden.
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PREKÄRE 2 BILLIARDEN $ SCHULDEN STÜTZEN SICH AUF 2 BILLIONEN $ GOLD
Ein „Lehman-Moment“ hoch zwei naht; schon jetzt stehen Schweizer Banken und britische Pensionskassen unter gewaltigem Druck. Doch werfen wir zuerst einen Blick auf einen anderen "Zirkus" –
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Dollarstärke-Politik: US-Notenbank riskiert systemische Implosion
Überall schlagen die negativen Effekte der „Dollarstärke-Politik“ der US-Notenbank durch. Der US-Normalverbraucher in Stadt & Land bekommt sie zu spüren und auch die Zentralbanken in Europa, Japan und anderswo. Und zwar richtig! Man frage nur die Briten...
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AKTIEN & SCHULDEN: 50-FACHER ANSTIEG IN 50 JAHREN! WIE WEIT WERDEN SIE FALLEN?
Aktien, Anleihen und Immobilien stecken in großen Bärenmärkten, Anleger hoffen (und beten) verzweifelt, die Fed und andere Zentralbanken mögen sie retten. Doch diesmal kommt es anders.
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GLOBALER FINANZSTURM VON EPISCHEN AUSMASSEN
Die dunklen Jahre rücken näher und die Welt geht in den Überlebensmodus über. Zugegeben, wer heute in ein gehobenes Restaurant in New York, London oder Zürich geht, wird dort keinen Hinweis auf Elend finden, sondern auf unfassbaren Überfluss.
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NICHT VERSICHERTE BANKSCHLIEßFÄCHER? LESEN SIE DIE BEDINGUNGEN
Ein weltweites Drama nimmt seinen Lauf. Die globalen Aktienmärkte haben den Rückzug angetreten und nach gut 20% Verlust im Weltmaßstab, werden weitere drastische Verluste folgen. Die Realwirtschaft leidet und Fed-Ex ist ein guter Indikator für große Wirtschaftsprobleme. Auch Anleihen haben gedreht und durch Verkäufe und Zinserhöhungen drohen hier große Verluste für Anleger. Wie in der Vergangenheit werden Staaten ihre Schulden mit wertlosem Geld bezahlen. Trotz Zinserhöhungen sind die Realzinsen weiterhin stark negativ, was für Edelmetalle spricht.
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Even a Weaponized Dollar Won’t Stop Gold’s Historical Turning Point
Despite all the fake, real, twisted, straight or bent words, facts and policies emerging today, the West in general and the US in particular cannot escape the natural laws of debt nor the hard realities (as well as consequences) of pretending that more debt, paid for with increasingly debased, mouse-clicked currencies, is a viable policy rather than an open comedy, as well as insult to the long-forgotten science of economics.
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Powell: A Breathing Weapon of Mass Destruction
Powell’s so-called “war against inflation” will fail, but not before crushing everything from risk asset, precious metal and currency pricing to the USD. As importantly, Powell is accelerating global market shifts while sending a death knell to the ignored middle class.
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The End is Nearing: A World Slowly/Openly Turning Away from the USD
Despite Western attempts to flex its currency muscle via USD-driven sanctions, nations like Russia and China are now leading the charge from a one-currency world to a multi-currency world of import payments. The West has shot itself and the world reserve currency in the foot.