Facts Matter: Why Trump Won

By Matthew Piepenburg

Partner

December 15, 2024

In a pre-election trip to DC and the Big Apple, it was clear to everyone with whom I spoke that, “Trump was never gonna win, period.”

A month later, he won.

These were pretty clever folks, so why were they wrong?

The Current Political Mood: Geniuses vs Fools?

As of now, the losing side can’t make sense of what is to come nor how Trump came to win at all.

It shocks them at best and terrifies them at worst.

For many on the right, the left has fallen under “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” an affliction suffered by never-Trumpers who have famously compared the Orange Man and his incoming team to that of the Third Reich or some quasi allusion to a Leni Riefenstahl film.

Others, however, are more careful of such blithe comparisons, which are an insult to any who suffered under the actual rather than media-inflamed “Hitler.”

Does this mean Trump is a misunderstood savior? A unique genius who can wave a rhetorical wand over the nation and solve its myriad woes in one “Art of the Deal” term? Does it mean any who opposed his campaign are fools, and all who supported his campaign – geniuses?

Of course not.

But he did win the 2024 election.

Why?

Facts Trump Emotions

If Americans want to get past the political and party-media-lead madness which has so deliberately divided the otherwise not-so- “United” States of America, it may help to look a bit more carefully into the factual mirror of our nation (economically, politically, and socially) to better understand how this nation reached its current crossroads and polarized confusion.

Facts, after all, are stubborn things, and as such, the media which controls them have an uncanny capacity to omit them.

And the facts below may surprise some, especially those who can’t fathom a Trump America.

Pride Cometh Before the Fall

Months back, I dedicated an entire article to a best-selling book authored by Francis Fukuyama, which came out just after the fall of the Soviet Union.

As its title— “The End of History”—implied, the book’s theme in that 1992 moment of “American Exceptionalism” was that history had culminated in the final victory of liberal democracy and free market capitalism.

America, the author told us, had triumphed. We could all relax.

Unfortunately, the economic facts in my article, as well as those cited below, reveal a far less optimistic narrative of the “end of history” and the alleged “triumph” of “liberal democracy” or “free market capitalism” American style, neither of which are factually in play today…

Again, See for yourselves.

Far more ironically, the profile of the current (and depressed) American Zeitgeist and growth narrative in 2024 is, in fact, strikingly similar to that of the dying Soviet Empire in the 1980s, the very empire which Fukuyama claimed we had defeated in 1992.

Sound sensational?

Again, let’s look at the facts.

Are We Soviet Now?

In a compelling article penned by Niall Ferguson in 2024, this Scottish observer of the world in general had his eyes on the data coming out of America in particular.

To him, at least, the data made a potential Trump victory very likely to those with their eyes on an otherwise ignored segment of America.

And according to Ferguson, few, if any, American “journalists” had ever bothered to touch such facts within its party-controlled (but grass-roots blind) mass media—aka Pravda-like “propaganda arm.”

And what did Mr. Ferguson uncover that the Biden/Harris camp was factually ignoring?

“Soviet-Like Growth”

First, he saw what we at VON GREYERZ have been describing for years, namely that US “growth” in the 2020s was nothing more than debt-driven growth masked by fiscal and monetary steroids whose end-game was financial and currency destruction.

This destruction, of course, hits the ordinary American far harder than the top 10%.

According to Ferguson, the United States, in many ways, resembled the profile of the Soviet Union’s teetering yet publicly lauded (i.e., fake) “growth narrative” of the 1980s in which a small minority thrived and the vast majority suffered.

“Soviet-Like” Detachment

Ferguson also compared the Soviet Union’s geriatric and weak political leadership to the physical and mental decline of Biden, which no one, not even a true-blue Democrat, could deny.

The Soviet Union then, much like the American DC today, was riddled with aging leaders (think Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, Bernie Sanders, Chuck Grassley etc.) clinging to power despite being personally and financially detached from the realities of the average citizen.

Trump, surrounded by younger faces like Ramaswamy, Musk, Kennedy or Gabbard, was offering more dynamic profiles to the scene, and they spoke directly to the issues George Clooney forgot about from Lake Como.

“Soviet-Like” Inefficiency—And Zero Accountability

As anyone who has ever lived in (or traveled through) a socialist system knows, state-owned enterprises have zero pressure to be efficient and no consequences for failure. I see this every time I take a train in France…

Toward this end, Ferguson made a similar assessment of the US government, which has become increasingly detached from the folks on Main Street.

The proof of this eerie detachment from efficiency or accountability lay in the American balance sheet and insane debt levels, which, again, almost no one in DC or the NY Times wanted to address (but which we discuss literally every week…)

As Ferguson reminds us, the USA will spend more in 2024 on the interest expense of its debt obligations than it does on its military budget.

Declining Empire Debt Levels

This may sound to some like just another boring debt statistic, but once debt expenses surpass defence spending, that nation is historically and without exception marked by decline—See, i.e., The Dutch Empire, Habsburg Spain, Bourbon France, the 19^th century Ottoman Empire of the 20^th century British empire.

And the first to feel such media-ignored declines are citizens paying the invisible tax of inflation due to governments debasing their currency to monetize a criminal debt over-reach.

The left, it seems, assumed no one on Main Street was noticing. After all, they are just “ordinary” Americans.

Like us at VON GREYERZ, Fergusson also reminds us that once an inefficient and unaccountable government is running a deficit that is 6% of GDP (despite so-called “full employment”), this is a screaming signal that your government is out of control.

Again, the left did not want to consider this openly. They assumed no one was noticing. Again, “ordinary” Americans are easy to distract, entertain and even misinform.

Meanwhile, Ferguson revealed further indicators of popular resentment, which are far less publicized, though far more tragic.

Soviet-Like Despair: The Real Signal of Decline

If one, for example, wants to better understand the “health” of one’s nation or debt-based “growth,” does it not make equal sense to consider the literal mental health of that same nation?

Ferguson thought so. (So, by the way, did RFK, Jr.)

In the last dying years of the Soviet Union, Ferguson tracked the staggering levels of extreme alcohol over-consumption within its borders, combined with the rising poll data of complete distrust and indifference to Soviet leadership combined with an empirically evident loss of hope in the Russian future.

He then compared yesterday’s Soviet data to current WSJ polls wherein public interest in patriotism, religion and even the desire for children in the USA was in a similar, historical and marked decline.

Equally alarming, those same polls indicated that public confidence in the US Congress (our most significant constitutional body) had fallen to the single digits.

Perhaps most tragic of all, Ferguson brought to light otherwise ignored yet highly critical public health data, which is far more important than GDP statistics.

Specifically, Ferguson discovered that in the last 10 years, more Americans died by suicide, drug overdose, alcohol disease, pain-killing-opioids and other “deaths of despair” than by COVID.

This “Soviet-like” profile of despair, of course, is most prevalent in the rust-belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia etc.—i.e., far from the sound stages of CNN, FOX News, The View or the dinning clubs of DC. 

In short, and confirmed by the research of Angus Deaton, Ferguson discovered that the only other advanced economy with comparable US declines in life expectancy and a simultaneous rise in quantifiable deaths of despair was the dying Soviet Union of the 1980s.

Stated otherwise, life was not as hopeful for “ordinary” Americans as the Harris party and spin-selling media had, well, hoped…

Back to Frick’ n Politics

When it came to such evidence of declining public faith in the US government and the growing metrics of hopelessness on Main Street, Fergusson, a Scott who is neither a registered US Democrat nor Republican, was not afraid to make a few pre-election predictions based upon the foregoing data.

In short, he asked how the democratic party could assume an easy victory if it was unable to see its nation’s own darker economic and social reality.

But how did these politicos, so otherwise obsessed with transgender prison policies and bathrooms, become so detached from the grass-roots realities of ordinary men and women?

Deliberately Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Two Americas

The answer, Ferguson concluded, hinged largely upon financial and educational perspectives, which resulted in what he described as two Americas rather than a single or “united” America.

Statistically, for example, well-educated Americans with incomes over $150,000 have views and opinions which differ on just about everything from those of otherwise “ordinary” Americans—i.e. those whom Hillary Clinton partially described as “deplorables” …

The wealthier, for example, were far more prone to favor the rationing of meat to save the climate than your average North Carolina carpenter or Michigan police officer.

In other words, the “party” had become completely detached from the lives of the less affluent, hardworking Americans, and it was those Americans who swung the vote in the “swing” states.

A Detached Party, A Detached Media

And that same democratic party, whether they wish(ed) to admit it or not, held undeniable control over the legacy media (an ironic and perfect blend of government and corporate power, which, by the way, defines fascism).

I guess the “extraordinary” leaders of the left felt that “ordinary” Americans would vote as their media arm directed them. You know: Like in a fascist, state-run media…

The Majority Matters

But while both the democratic party and largely unqualified Ken & Barbi prompt readers in the openly left MSM were ignoring many ordinary Americans, those same Americans were turning their backs on CNN and turning their attention toward alternative platforms like Joe Rogan.

The democrats spent hundreds of millions more on legacy media platforms than Trump’s camp, who focused instead on where the real viewers and audience could be found—and it was very far from a grossly overpaid and under-qualified Rachel Maddow…

And finally, alas, Trump won.

What has followed is the expected hysteria, handwringing and “fascism” analogies from the left and perhaps an over-enthusiasm and over-faith in Trump from the right.

What can we expect?

Enter the “impolitical” Trump

Will these “two Americas” ever be able to see a common America? Or are we poised for more partisan polarization and an almost galvanic, media-fed and lawfare-prone attacks on Trump?

I, of course, can not predict exactly what Trump will and can do. Nor can I predict what the left (rightly or wrongly) will do. No one can.

Although I’ve opined to certain strengths and weaknesses of Trump’s publicly addressed policies heading into 2025, no one can predict today precisely what unfolds tomorrow.

Impossible to Predict

Such predictions are especially difficult in a global and national setting gutted by debt, over-leverage, hidden war hawks and an undeniable DC swamp that needs some kind of clean-up, left and right.

Nor will anything I say change anyone’s mind as to the media-massaged US policies (fiascos), intel-driven “regime changes” and proxy wars from Ukraine to Syria and Lebanon.

For those who just want to critique Trump and his incoming team, nothing here or tomorrow will likely change that view.

As even RFK Jr. has said, Trump is “impolitical” and his mannerisms, statements and profile are anything but typical or normal of the DC list of usual suspects.

Yes, Trump is a wild card and could inherit or create a disaster. Anything can happen with the “impolitical.” Sublime or ridiculous.

The Left: Hardly Immune from Fault

But for those who wish to sanctify the Biden years as anti-fascist, pro-peace, pro-coming-together and pro-workingman, well…

Not so fast.

Does a current White House wishing to escalate a war which Trump wishes to end really seem pro-peace and of genuine interest to ordinary Americans?

Did the current White House truly speak to the ordinary man, or did those ordinary types just elect someone entirely different for a reason?

Does the current White House, ruling over the worst opioid and immigration crisis in our history, have a better record, plan or policy?

Does the current party, who has empirically hi-jacked the so-called “free press” — which is 100% owned by five partisan and multi-national corporations–really represent the bedrock, democracy ideals of the First Amendment and free expression better than say, Elon Musk’s new X platform?

Does the legacy of Fauci show a greater profile in courage and transparency than Robert Kennedy Jr’s own record and profile?

With a national debt/GDP ratio in excess of 120%, does the very DOGE idea of at least attempting spending cuts in the DC bureaucracy seem better than an increase in spending?

Decide for yourselves.

As for the majority of Americans, they already have—and they can’t all be “deplorables.”

Facts vs. Emotions & Party Press

Red or blue, left or right, informed Americans who get their opinions from facts rather than emotions or prompt-readers need to re-examine themselves and each other.

Is it just possible, for example, that an incoming Vice President who fought for his country and authored the Hillbilly Elegy may have resonated just a bit better with “ordinary Americans” than the current Vice President due to his actual merit as opposed to voter racism and/or misogyny?

And though Trump may not be “of the people,” he certainly knew how to speak to (and like) the people better than his opponents, neither of whom could barely speak at all.

As in most matters, the path behind and ahead is not so black and white nor red and blue, and the risks and rewards we face are almost never discussed objectively from the “official media” or a panel of former Hollywood wash-outs or paid-for party squawkers who have entirely replaced “investigative journalism.”

Instead, answers, risks, successes and failures come from transparent facts and critical, informed and independent thinking, whether that be about politics, history, markets, economic conditions, currencies or precious metals.

Trump won because he was more believed and in touch, and the left lost because its party and legacy platforms were less believed and more out of touch.

As to tracking Trump’s successes or failures going forward, we’d be better served trusting ourselves and the facts presented rather than the facts omitted and distorted by a left-monopolized media industrial complex that underestimated just how extraordinary our “ordinary” Americans truly are.

Come 2025, let’s allow the facts to speak for themselves. That’s always the best place to start.