Today & Tomorrow: Volatility Worse Than 1987, September 11th and the 2008 Crisis

By Matthew Piepenburg

Partner

April 4, 2023

In this 30-minute conversation with Elijah Johnson of Liberty Finance, Matterhorn Asset Management principal, Matthew Piepenburg, addresses the escalating ripple effects of the U.S. banking crisis and the growing distrust of gasping bond markets, cornered policy makers and now inevitable as well as potentially unprecedented market instability. Already, Treasury markets and contract prices in the futures market are sending price and volatility signals which surpass the stressors of 1987, 9-11 and the GFC of 2008.

Piepenburg looks past the superficial headlines of the recent banking a crisis and addresses the more sinister realities and origins of a terminally ill bond market. The banking failures of late are merely the latest symptom of a long string of credit-event implosions (Repo Markets of 2019, bond crisis of March, 2020 and the gilt implosion of 2022). 

In particular, Piepenburg explains how post-SVB volatility in Treasury markets combined with signals in the Euro-Dollar futures market are hidden yet critical indicators that market makers and credit prices (rather than Fed fluff and calming words) are bracing for massive and pending financial disruption in 2023. As warned for months, Piepenburg underscores how the bond market, rather than Fed-speak, is the real signal to track and trust. And those signals are scary.

The cornered Fed has no good scenarios left—it’s either raise rates into an economic depression or pivot toward hyper-inflation and more currency destruction, which will serve as an historical tailwind for gold. In the end, Piepenburg reminds that currencies are always the last bubble to “pop” and that eventually (and most likely in 2023) the Fed will be forced to mouse-click more inflationary fiat money to support an otherwise unloved UST and a USD whose faith, trust and hegemony are losing credibility by the day.